Daily Analysis 01/09/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair trades lower around 1.3545 during the early European session, continuing to give back some of its recent gains.
• Strait of Hormuz: Iran has remained relatively quiet so far on Tuesday, while ships were reportedly able to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Monday despite the latest US-Iran skirmish.
• Russia-China: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the Ukraine conflict during the SCO meeting, although it was not the main focus of their talks.
• US-Japan: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama held constructive discussions on foreign exchange markets, emphasizing the importance of orderly FX and yen rates for global financial stability.
• Trump signals: US President Donald Trump confirmed that any new strikes against Iran would be limited and claimed that around 30 ships are being escorted out of the Strait of Hormuz each night.

Closing statement: GBP/USD maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias, although easing concerns around the Strait of Hormuz could provide some support to risk sentiment. The pair's next move will likely depend on whether geopolitical tensions continue to ease and how the US Dollar responds.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) is trading with modest losses around $4,430 heading into the European session on Tuesday, remaining close to a one-and-a-half-week low.
• Pharmaceutical pricing: President Trump announced that nine additional pharmaceutical companies have agreed to most-favored-nation (MFN) pricing practices, bringing the total to 26 companies covering roughly 90% of the US pharmaceutical market.
• China's manufacturing: China's private RatingDog Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.5 in August from 50.9 in July, comfortably exceeding expectations.
• US-Russia: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Russian Finance Minister Siluanov that Washington will not provide economic relief to Russia until the Ukraine conflict ends.
• Ukraine-Russia: Russian attacks reportedly targeted border infrastructure in Ukraine's Izmail area, prompting the temporary suspension of a border crossing with Romania.

Closing statement: XAU/USD retains a cautiously bearish near-term bias while holding around $4,430, although geopolitical developments remain an important source of support. A renewed escalation in Ukraine or broader geopolitical tensions could quickly bring safe-haven demand back into focus.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $87.70, gaining for the second consecutive session.
• Strait of Hormuz: A tense calm has settled over the Middle East, but uncertainty remains high as President Trump threatens further action against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important for oil markets, as it previously handled around one-fifth of global oil supplies.
• Refining capacity: President Trump is scheduled to meet with US refiners and fuel distributors to discuss expanding refining capacity and lowering gasoline prices.
• Fed policy: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized at Jackson Hole that inflation remains above the 2% target and that the central bank needs to ensure underlying inflation is moving toward its objective.
• Venezuela's oil: A US oil company controlled by a Venezuelan business tycoon is reportedly set to replace Chinese and Russian operators across several Venezuelan oil fields.

Closing statement: WTI maintains a bullish near-term bias, with geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remaining the dominant price driver. However, Fed policy, US refining developments and potential changes in Venezuelan production could influence the sustainability of the recent rally.

• DAX 40 Price: Germany's benchmark DAX 40 is trading around 26,180 points, moving further away from its recent record high.
• Retail sales: German retail sales fell a sharp 3.4% in July, marking the biggest decline in more than four years and dramatically missing expectations for a 0.4% increase.
• Inflation numbers: North Rhine-Westphalia's August CPI increased 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% previously, while monthly inflation rose 0.2%. The acceleration in regional inflation could reinforce concerns about broader price pressures in Germany and the euro area.
• DHL reorganization: DHL Group has completed its corporate restructuring, officially changing its listed parent company name from Deutsche Post AG to DHL AG. The company said the new structure better aligns its legal organization with its increasingly international business footprint.
• Upcoming data: Investors will turn to the US JOLTS job openings report for July, with vacancies having generally declined in recent months after the June reading came in at 7.36 million. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is also due, with both releases potentially influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy and broader equity sentiment.

Closing statement: The DAX has a cautious near-term outlook, with the sharp deterioration in German retail activity weighing on sentiment. Investors will now look to US labour and manufacturing data, while developments in German inflation could also influence expectations for European monetary policy.