Daily Analysis 02/09/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD declined below the 1.3500 level during early European trading on Wednesday, signaling renewed downside pressure on the pair.
• BoE Governor: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said the UK is not yet experiencing significant second-round inflation effects, playing down concerns over persistent price pressures.
• Middle East: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it launched a “heavy” ballistic missile attack on Prince Hassan airbase and a US Marine base in Jordan following earlier US strikes that reportedly killed civilians.
• Labor market: US JOLTS job openings rose to 7.271 million in July, below expectations of 7.300 million but above the revised June figure of 7.182 million. However, hiring, layoffs and quits all declined, pointing to a labor market that remains resilient but is showing signs of moderation.
• Manufacturing activity: The US ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6, missing the 55.2 consensus estimate but remaining firmly in expansion territory. Production was broadly unchanged at a high level, while the notable decline in new orders suggests some loss of momentum ahead.

Closing statement: GBP/USD faces near-term downside pressure after falling below 1.3500. Bailey’s dovish inflation assessment weighs on sterling, while geopolitical tensions and still-solid US economic activity could continue to support the dollar, keeping the 1.3500 level in focus.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) recovered from an early decline to a four-week low and moved back above $4,320 heading into the European session.
• Fed’s Barr: Fed Governor Barr said he would support keeping interest rates steady if inflation shows signs of moderating toward the 2% target.
• Fed rate: Market expectations for a September Fed rate hike increased sharply to 68%, up from below 40% before Barr’s speech, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
• US Bessent: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised concerns over China’s use of the yuan in transactions with Iran at the G20.
• Gov shutdown: A bipartisan US House bill providing stopgap government funding through December 11 has passed, helping avert a potential government shutdown on October 1.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains under pressure despite recovering above $4,320, with sharply higher expectations for a September Fed rate hike creating a significant headwind. The next move will likely depend on whether US policy expectations continue to strengthen, while geopolitical developments could provide support to gold if risk aversion increases.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $90.80 during the early European session on Wednesday, remaining elevated amid persistent geopolitical risks and concerns over global oil supply disruptions.
• US-Iran: The US launched a second round of strikes against IRGC targets in three days, with President Trump warning Tehran that any retaliation would trigger a response at a “much harder and higher level.”
• Hormuz flow: US Energy Secretary Wright said that 17 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
• Venezuelan exports: Venezuela's total oil exports remained almost unchanged at 1.17 million barrels per day in August, while exports to the US stood at 553,000 barrels per day.
• Crude inventories: API data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week ending August 28, reversing the previous week's 4.2 million-barrel increase. The larger-than-expected inventory draw points to tighter supply conditions and could provide additional support to oil prices.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported near $90.80 as escalating US-Iran tensions and falling US crude inventories reinforce supply concerns. However, improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and stable Venezuelan exports could help limit further upside pressure.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 moved further away from its recent record high on Tuesday and is now trading below the 26,000-point level.
• German manufacturing: Euro area manufacturing activity is showing signs of recovery, with Germany increasingly taking the lead. The German manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 54.3 from 54.1, while PMIs in Spain and Italy slipped slightly below the 50-point threshold.
• Unemployment data: The euro area unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% in July, coming in slightly above the 6.3% consensus estimate. Spain recorded the highest rate among the largest economies at 10.0%, followed by France at 8.3% and Italy at 7.8%, while Germany and the Netherlands had the lowest rates at 4.0%.
• ECB’s Nagel: ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said the global economy remains on a growth path despite the Middle East crisis. He also noted that there are currently no signs of second-round inflation effects, suggesting that the broader economic impact of the conflict remains contained for now.
• ECB's Makhlouf: ECB policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf said the central bank must remain prepared to raise interest rates further.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains under pressure below 26,000 after moving further away from its record high. Improving German manufacturing provides a positive backdrop, but elevated unemployment and the ECB’s willingness to consider further rate hikes could limit the index’s near-term recovery.