Daily Analysis 03/09/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair trades broadly flat around 1.3490 during the early European session on Thursday.
• BoE’s Mann: BoE policymaker Catherine Mann said the UK economy has shown signs of stronger growth since the last monetary policy meeting. She also noted that the labour market has stabilised, while inflation has been somewhat stronger than expected, providing a mixed but relatively firm economic backdrop.
• BoE rate: Financial markets were fully pricing a BoE rate hike by the end of the year on Tuesday, while assigning only around a 15% probability to a September increase, according to Reuters.
• UK Services: The final UK services PMI for August is due today, following a flash reading of 52.8, up from 52.1 in July.
• NFP report: Investors will closely monitor the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains range-bound around 1.3490, with stronger UK growth and services activity providing some support to sterling. However, limited expectations for a September BoE hike and the upcoming US NFP report keep the pair vulnerable to renewed dollar strength.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its bid tone heading into the European session on Thursday, although it remains below the $4,450 level.
• Private payroll: ADP private payrolls increased by just 38,000 in August, below the 48,000 consensus estimate, while the July figure was revised slightly higher to 46,000 from 44,000.
• Challenger data: The US Challenger layoff report for August is due, with July announcements reaching their lowest level in two years. Layoff levels remain historically low, although AI has reportedly accounted for around one-third of layoffs in recent months, highlighting the changing dynamics of the US labour market.
• China data: China’s private RatingDog services PMI rose to 51.4 in August from 50.4 previously, supported mainly by stronger domestic demand. The improvement signals faster expansion in China’s services activity and could provide a positive backdrop for commodity demand, including gold.
• Beige Book: The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reported that economic activity increased modestly since early July, while the outlook for the coming months remained positive.

Closing statement: XAU/USD retains a positive tone but remains capped below $4,450 as mixed US signals create uncertainty over the Fed’s next move. Softer private payroll growth supports gold, while the positive US outlook and stronger Chinese services activity provide contrasting signals for the precious metal.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) struggles to build on a modest Asian-session uptick and currently trades just above the $90.50 mark.
• Trump signals: US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he is prepared to launch another attack on Iran.
• US military: US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth may extend Middle East deployments into 2027, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Economic pressure: Washington is expected to continue pressuring Iran and its partners through economic sanctions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a new sanctions-related warning covering maritime and digital assets as well as airlines, following previous warnings involving banks, reinforcing concerns over potential restrictions on Iranian oil flows.
• OPEC+ policy: OPEC+ is expected to leave its oil production policy unchanged for October when seven core members meet online on Sunday, according to Reuters. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are scheduled to meet at 11:00 GMT, with the decision likely to influence near-term supply expectations.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported above $90.50 as renewed US-Iran tensions and the prospect of prolonged regional military deployments keep supply risks elevated. However, the expectedly unchanged OPEC+ production policy could limit additional upside, leaving geopolitical developments as the key near-term catalyst.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is currently trading around 25,860 points during Friday’s European morning session.
• Growth outlook: Upgraded Sharply The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) significantly raised its growth forecasts for Germany, citing stronger-than-expected exports and a milder energy price shock from the Iran war. DIW now expects the economy to grow 1.2% in 2026, more than double its previous 0.5% forecast, followed by growth of 1.0% in 2027 and 0.7% in 2028.
• Volkswagen news: Volkswagen management is reportedly considering ending the traditional SEAT vehicle brand by 2029 as part of a broader restructuring and cost-cutting programme.
• Deutsche Telekom: Elliott Investment Management has reportedly built a sizeable stake in Deutsche Telekom and is pushing the company to abandon a potential full merger with T-Mobile US in favour of larger share buybacks, according to Bloomberg.
• China-Russia: China Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said prospects for strengthening China-Russia cooperation in the Far East are broad and promising.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains around 25,860, with a significantly stronger German growth outlook providing a constructive fundamental backdrop. However, corporate restructuring at Volkswagen, strategic pressure on Deutsche Telekom and broader geopolitical developments could continue to create volatility.