Daily Analysis 04/09/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is trading slightly higher around 1.3540 during the early European session on Friday.
• Services PMI: The UK final services PMI rose to 52.5 in August from 52.1 in July, confirming a second consecutive month of expansion, although it was revised down from the flash estimate of 52.8.
• BoE’s Pill: BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said the central bank should raise its key interest rate to reduce the risk of inflation remaining above target for an extended period.
• US services: The US ISM Services PMI climbed to 55.4 in August from 54.1, beating expectations of 54.2 and pointing to solid momentum in the services sector.
• Waller signals: Fed Governor Christopher Waller argued that the Federal Reserve should give disinflation more time to progress and could afford to keep interest rates unchanged in September.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains mildly supported around 1.3540, with resilient UK services activity and Huw Pill’s hawkish stance favouring the Pound. However, strong US services data and Waller’s cautious approach to rate cuts could limit further upside, leaving the pair vulnerable to renewed Dollar strength.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Friday, snapping a two-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) gains modestly.
• US layoffs: The Challenger layoff report showed that planned job cuts increased to 53,000 in August, up from 33,000 in July, which was the lowest level in two years.
• Fed rate: Interest-rate futures on Thursday priced the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September Fed meeting at slightly above 15%. However, the probability rises to more than 70% for the November meeting, suggesting markets see a greater chance of further tightening later in the year.
• Trade deficit: The US July trade deficit came in at $88.6 billion, narrower than the $90.2 billion expected, while exports fell 2.1% month-over-month to $310.7 billion and imports rose 2.8% to $399.3 billion. The trade deficits with China and Japan also increased to $17.4 billion and $4.7 billion, respectively.
• Chinese vehicles: An auto industry group is reportedly urging US lawmakers to pass a comprehensive ban on Chinese vehicles before the end of 2026.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains relatively supported above $4,450 despite Friday’s modest pullback and stronger Dollar. Rising US layoffs and ongoing trade tensions could support Gold, while expectations for tighter Fed policy later in the year may limit its upside.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, trades around the $91.00 mark during the European session on Friday.
• Iran targets: Iran targeted US military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Thursday, marking a further escalation in the Middle East crisis.
• US signals: US Vice President JD Vance said President Donald Trump has a range of options available to respond to Tehran, including economic, military, diplomatic and covert measures.
• Hormuz deployment: South Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy military assets to support freedom of navigation in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, with the deployment targeted before the end of the year.
• Refiners capacity: Despite record-high refining margins and strong profits, refiners are reportedly unwilling to invest billions of dollars in new crude-processing facilities.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported around $91.00 as escalating tensions involving Iran and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz reinforce supply risks. However, expectations of weaker long-term fuel demand and limited incentives for refinery expansion could create a more mixed outlook for oil prices.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading back above the 26,000-point mark during the European session on Friday.
• Factory orders: German Factory Orders increased 2.5% in July, significantly exceeding expectations for a 0.3% rise and following a 3.7% gain in June. On an annual basis, orders jumped 13.1%, almost doubling June’s 7.2% increase and pointing to stronger momentum in the industrial sector.
• State elections: State elections begin in Germany on Sunday with Saxony-Anhalt, the first of three votes in eastern Germany this month, expected to provide an important test of AfD momentum ahead of 2027. The AfD is polling around 42%, well ahead of the CDU at approximately 23%, adding a political risk factor for German markets.
• US trade: US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that alignment between the UK and EU represents a “problem” for a potential US-UK trade deal.
• EU-US tensions: and Iran Policy in Focus US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the EU had joined “operation Economic Outcast,” while also appreciating the bloc’s strong and early stance on Iran.

Closing statement: DAX 40 regains the 26,000 level as a sharp improvement in German Factory Orders provides a strong fundamental backdrop. However, upcoming German elections and continued EU-US trade and geopolitical tensions could increase volatility and limit further gains.