Daily Analysis 09/06/2025

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair moved higher toward 1.3565 during Monday’s early European session, benefiting from broad-based US Dollar weakness. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming US-China trade discussions.
• Technical Outlook: Technically, GBP/USD continues to trade above the 100-day EMA, reinforcing a constructive near-term outlook. The support level acts as a foundation for potential further gains, provided no bearish macro surprises emerge.
• BoE Governor: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s commitment to a cautious and data-dependent rate-cut path has underpinned the pound. His remarks last week highlighted monetary prudence amid global trade uncertainties, which helped maintain investor confidence in GBP.
• US Jobs Data: The US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, slightly below the downwardly revised April figure of 147,000. While still showing job growth, the data fell short of expectations, adding to pressure on the US Dollar and favoring the pound.
• US-China Trade: Investors are closely watching the US-China trade negotiations in London scheduled for Monday. Participation from senior US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, could introduce market-moving headlines depending on the outcome.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is showing resilience supported by both technical structure and BoE’s cautious stance, while a softening USD and anticipation around US-China trade talks continue to provide upward momentum. The pair’s direction will hinge on trade-related developments and macroeconomic data this week.

• XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD hovers near the $3,300 mark early Monday, struggling to find upside traction amid renewed risk appetite and a stronger USD. Gold enters a crucial macro week under pressure following a soft Friday close.
• US Jobs Data: The recent US employment data beat expectations, reducing the likelihood of more than two Fed rate cuts in 2025. This supports a hawkish Fed outlook, lifting the US Dollar and weighing on gold prices, which typically move inversely.
• Unrest in LA: Despite macro support, the US Dollar is facing downside pressure from domestic instability, as LA riots over immigration tensions escalate. The unrest has drawn national attention, contributing to investor caution and haven flows into gold.
• US-China Trade: Markets await the outcome of US-China trade consultations in the UK, involving top officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng. Trade policy updates from this meeting could significantly sway gold via USD volatility.
• Trump-Musk Rift: Traders are realigning positions ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI release, a potential game-changer for Fed expectations. Meanwhile, the public feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk adds an unusual layer of political tension to already volatile markets.

Closing statement: Gold is at a pivotal juncture near $3,300, pressured by a firmer USD on the back of strong jobs data, yet supported by geopolitical risk and domestic unrest. Upcoming CPI figures and US-China trade outcomes will likely set the tone for XAU/USD in the days ahead.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil began the week with a modest pullback, easing from Friday’s sharp rally but holding above $64.00, its highest level since April 23. The movement reflects profit-taking and temporary hesitation after recent gains.
• OPEC+ Output: Traders appear to have digested OPEC+’s decision to hike output again in July, announced on May 31. Despite the news, market sentiment suggests limited downside, as investors perceive the pullback as a buying opportunity amid seasonal demand strength.
• LA Turmoil: Political tension rose as President Trump deployed 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles, bypassing California Governor Newsom. The escalating domestic unrest has sparked broader risk concerns, which could influence energy markets if disruptions spread.
• Chinese Trade Data: China reported disappointing export and import figures for May, with exports stalling under the weight of high tariffs and imports falling more than expected. The data fuels concerns about global demand softness, which could limit oil's upside.
• Japanese PM: Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba warned that rising global interest rates could strain Japan’s debt servicing, potentially curbing fiscal spending. While not directly impacting oil, Japan’s economic signals contribute to a cautious global macro outlook.

Closing statement: WTI remains above $64 despite a brief consolidation, as markets balance OPEC+ supply dynamics with demand uncertainty. Key watchpoints include domestic US stability, Chinese economic data, and broader risk sentiment heading into midweek.

• DAX Price: The DAX fell 0.08% on Friday, June 6, to close at 24,305, ending a three-session winning streak. The slight decline came after Thursday’s modest gain of 0.19%, reflecting investor caution amid weak German economic data.
• German Data: April data showed German exports dropped 1.7% MoM, with a sharp 10.5% fall in shipments to the US, pointing to tariff-related headwinds. Simultaneously, industrial production declined by 1.4%, underlining concerns about a slowing economic recovery in Europe’s largest economy.
• Bank Stocks: Financials outperformed, benefiting from expectations of a less dovish European Central Bank. Deutsche Bank gained 0.71%, while Commerzbank edged up 0.18%, as traders priced in a possible end to the ECB’s easing cycle.
• Auto Sector: Automakers lagged as Trump’s tariff hikes on steel and aluminum and stalled US-EU trade negotiations pressured the sector. Volkswagen slid 1.72%, while Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW also registered losses, reflecting rising geopolitical risk.
• US Inflation: Looking ahead, attention turns to US consumer inflation expectations data due Monday, June 9. Economists expect inflation expectations to remain steady at 3.6%, which could influence global rate outlooks and market sentiment.

Closing statement: The DAX faces conflicting forces, with strong bank performance offset by weakness in industrial and auto stocks. Weak German data and lingering trade tensions underscore the fragile recovery, with upcoming US inflation signals likely to shape near-term direction.