EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair retreats from recent highs, trading near 1.1435 during the European session on Tuesday. The failure to build on Monday’s gains signals a cautious tone, as traders reassess the Eurozone’s monetary outlook.
- Eurozone Inflation: May inflation data showed Eurozone CPI dipping below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since September 2024, intensifying market speculation about potential additional rate cuts despite ECB signals of nearing the policy floor.
- ECB Signals: Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that rates are approaching neutral levels, suggesting the end of the easing cycle is in sight. Her remarks aim to balance market expectations while maintaining flexibility amid global uncertainty.
- US-China Trade: Geopolitical focus remains on US-China trade negotiations, with meetings resuming in London on Tuesday. Efforts to resolve tensions over technology exports and rare earth materials could affect global risk sentiment and influence USD flows.
- Investor Confidence: Later in the session, markets will watch June’s Sentix Investor Confidence data from the Eurozone. The reading will offer insights into investor sentiment and expectations for the region’s economic recovery.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains range-bound and vulnerable to macro headlines, particularly around inflation, ECB signals, and US-China diplomacy. With easing speculation rising but monetary policy near its limit, investors are likely to trade cautiously ahead of further data and geopolitical clarity.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD dips modestly during the European session on Tuesday, hovering above 1.3530. Despite the pullback, the pair remains resilient, with price action supported by underlying technical strength.
- Technicals Support: On the daily chart, GBP/USD continues to trend within an ascending channel, indicating a persistent bullish bias. As long as the pair holds above support near 1.3500, buyers may remain in control.
- Unemployment Rate: The UK ILO Unemployment Rate is expected to edge higher from a three-year high level of 4.5% registered in the previous month to 4.6% during the three months to April.
- Labor Market: Additional details of the job report showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose 33.1K in May, compared with a revised decline of 21.2K in April, missing the expected 9.5K figure. The Employment Change data came in at 89K in April versus 112K in March.
- US Calendar: With the US economic calendar sparse on Tuesday, market participants are largely in a holding pattern ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data. In the interim, US-China and US-EU trade developments may dictate short-term USD dynamics.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: While GBP/USD remains technically constructive, macroeconomic data from the UK paints a less upbeat picture. Traders are likely to stay cautious ahead of the US CPI release, with trade headlines serving as a key intraday driver.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold prices trade under pressure on Tuesday, failing to build on Monday’s bounce from a one-week low. The move is largely attributed to renewed US Dollar strength and diminishing safe-haven demand.
- Japanese Yen: The USD gained traction, particularly against the Japanese Yen, after dovish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda. His cautious tone on rate hikes led to JPY weakness, supporting USD/JPY and indirectly capping gold’s upside.
- Trade Optimism: President Trump’s vague optimism on US-China relations, despite lacking detail, reduced investor demand for traditional hedges like gold. Hopes for progress in technology and rare earth element discussions eased geopolitical tensions slightly.
- Inflation Expectations: The Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a notable drop in one-year inflation expectations (to 3.2% from 3.6%), supporting a dovish rate outlook and tempering some of the USD strength.
- Fed Rate Cut: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are still pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, which may eventually provide support to non-yielding assets like gold.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: While gold faces immediate pressure from a stronger dollar and trade optimism, lower inflation expectations and sustained Fed rate cut bets offer a counterbalance. The overall trend remains choppy, with gold likely to trade in a range-bound fashion near-term unless geopolitical or monetary policy narratives shift significantly.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trades around $64.60 in European hours on Tuesday, maintaining recent gains as markets digest escalating geopolitical tensions and mixed trade signals.
- Russia- Ukraine Conflict: Russia's launch of nearly 500 drones and missiles against Ukraine marks a significant intensification of the conflict. The move injects fresh geopolitical risk premium into oil markets, supporting prices amid broader volatility.
- Japan-US Trade: Comments from Japan’s trade negotiator Akazawa described current US-Japan trade talks as "still in fog," creating uncertainty around tariff resolutions. His planned visit to the US and Canada in mid-June may shape short-term sentiment, especially with energy trade on the agenda.
- US-China Talks: White House NEC Director Hassett suggested a potential deal with China on rare earth minerals might be close, contingent on handshake agreements in London. A successful outcome could ease global supply chain strains, including for the energy sector.
- Norway Oil Industry: Norwegian manufacturing output rose 2.8% in April, driven by a 3.8% surge in oil-related industries. This suggests stronger European oil demand, offering a fundamental tailwind for crude in the medium term.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: WTI prices remain supported by geopolitical risks and oil-sector resilience, particularly in Europe. However, uncertainty in key trade negotiations (US-Japan, US-China) could trigger near-term volatility, making crude sensitive to headlines and policy signals in the coming days.
DAX
- DAX Price: Following a subdued start to the week due to holiday-thinned trading, the DAX is poised for slight gains on Tuesday, stabilizing after reaching a record high of 24,479 points last Thursday. However, market participants continue to seek clear direction.
- US-China Trade: Positive signals from US-China trade negotiations have lifted investor confidence. Treasury Secretary Bessent described the talks as "good," while Commerce Secretary Lutnick called them "fruitful" — a tone that supports equities, especially export-sensitive European firms.
- Chinese Data: China’s May inflation data revealed a 0.1% YoY decline in consumer prices, mirroring April’s figure, while producer prices dropped 3.3%, deeper than the previous 2.7% fall. These disinflationary trends underscore soft global demand, potentially pressuring German industrial exporters.
- Macron’s Comments: French President Macron intensified geopolitical rhetoric by calling Israel’s blockade "outrageous," urging an immediate ceasefire. Although indirect, such developments may stir European political uncertainty, with potential spillover into equity risk sentiment.
- US Inflation Data: Investors await key US CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday) reports for clues on tariff-driven inflation dynamics. Any signs of price pressure could affect global rate expectations and impact DAX performance via shifts in bond yields and sector rotation.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: While the DAX remains technically resilient, direction hinges on upcoming US inflation data and global trade signals. Positive momentum from trade diplomacy contrasts with soft demand signals from China, creating a fragile equilibrium for the index near all-time highs.