EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD trades slightly lower near 1.1580, giving back some of the previous session’s gains during European hours on Friday.
- Eurozone Data: Germany and Eurozone PMI data signaled resilience in August, complicating expectations for additional ECB rate cuts this year.
- French Growth: France’s PMIs improved, hovering just below 50, suggesting near stabilization and modest GDP growth in Q3.
- ECB Policy: ECB President Lagarde described eurozone growth as “solid, if a little better,” with markets now pricing the first ECB rate cut no earlier than spring 2026.
- Fed Focus: Investor attention shifts to Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, with traders scaling back bets on near-term US rate cuts, a factor underpinning USD strength.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising |  |
Closing statement: EUR/USD softens as resilient Eurozone data collides with cautious ECB policy signals, while the Fed remains in focus. Dollar momentum may persist unless Powell signals a dovish turn.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD holds steady, fluctuating just below 1.3400 in early Friday trade.
- UK PMI: Preliminary Composite PMI rose to 53.0 in August, beating expectations and signaling stronger-than-expected economic momentum.
- Growth Outlook: S&P Global noted that UK growth accelerated to a one-year high, led by the services sector with signs of stabilization in manufacturing.
- Consumer Confidence: UK consumer confidence improved in August, rising to -17 from -19, the highest level since December, supported by stronger household financial sentiment.
- Manufacturing Sector: Despite upbeat services and consumer data, UK manufacturing orders fell sharply in August, with the CBI survey warning of continued weakness ahead.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains steady as strong services and consumer sentiment offset manufacturing headwinds, keeping the pair supported but vulnerable below 1.3400.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold price softens on Friday, trading near $3330/oz, extending Thursday’s pullback.
- US Labor Market: Jobless claims rose unexpectedly, while Continuing Claims hit their highest since Nov 2021, signaling growing labor market weakness.
- Fed Commentary: Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack struck a hawkish tone, favoring a modestly restrictive policy stance to ensure inflation keeps moving lower.
- Powell Watch: Ahead of Powell’s speech WSJ’s Timiraos said that Powell may be planning a "U-turn" on an economic strategy ‘framework that "soured", but that it will not affect near-term policy.
- US Policy: The Trump administration ruled out equity stakes in companies expanding US investments, following pushback from firms like TSMC over CHIPS Act conditions.
| SMA (20) | Neutral | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: XAU/USD drifts lower as hawkish Fed signals and policy headlines offset weaker labor data, with Powell’s speech likely to set the near-term tone.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude trades around $63.50/bbl early Friday in Europe, slightly higher than Thursday’s close at $63.40, extending its upward bias.
- EIA report: Prices found support after the EIA reported a 6M-barrel stockpile drawdown, far exceeding expectations of 1.8M, highlighting robust demand.
- Trade Policy: The US and EU formalized a framework trade deal, featuring a 15% US tariff on EU imports across sectors like autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
- Geopolitical News: Lavrov accused Ukraine of rejecting peace, while reports suggest Putin demands Donbas cession and exclusion of NATO/Western troops, signaling limited scope for near-term de-escalation.
- Fed Commentary: Kansas City’s Schmid flagged inflation risks outweighing labor concerns, while Atlanta’s Bostic noted inflation remains above target, adding a hawkish tilt to Fed rhetoric.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: WTI gains modestly on tight supply signals and strong demand, but trade frictions, geopolitical risks, and hawkish Fed tones keep upside momentum restrained.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX closed at 24,293 (+0.07%) on Thursday, recovering slightly after Wednesday’s 0.6% decline.
- Business Activity: Germany’s Composite PMI rose to 50.9, the highest since March, supported by gains in manufacturing output and new orders.
- Manufacturing Activity: The HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.9 in August, a 38-month high. Stronger new orders growth eased worries about US tariff impacts.
- Bundesbank Outlook: The Bundesbank’s monthly report pointed to stagnation in Q3, reflecting subdued momentum despite improving PMI figures.
- GDP Revision: Destatis data showed Q2 GDP contracted by 0.3%, worse than the initial -0.1% estimate, underscoring lingering structural weakness in Europe’s largest economy.
| SMA (20) | Neutral | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX steadied on manufacturing resilience and stronger PMIs, but downward GDP revision and stagnation warnings suggest fragile growth ahead.