Daily Analysis 23/07/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair has recovered to around 1.3385 during Thursday's European session.
• Fiscal plans: UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is facing increasing pressure to explain how his government intends to finance its policy agenda after asking ministers to explore “all possible ways” to address the cost-of-living crisis.
• US-China: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described their meeting in Manila as constructive and positive.
• US warning: President Donald Trump warned that any future Iranian attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger US strikes against Iranian infrastructure, including bridges or power plants.
• BoE rates: Markets expect the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% next week.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is attempting to recover toward 1.3385, but the Pound remains vulnerable to uncertainty surrounding the UK's fiscal plans. Meanwhile, elevated geopolitical tensions and expectations of unchanged BoE policy are likely to keep the pair volatile.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is consolidating above the $4,100 psychological level during the Asian session, after retreating modestly from a more than two-week high reached the previous day.
• Chinese technology: The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) voted to close a Chinese supply-chain loophole by restricting the sale and authorization of devices containing logic-bearing hardware from certain Chinese companies linked to national security concerns.
• US-Russia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings. It would be their first meeting since September's United Nations gathering, making the encounter potentially significant for US-Russia diplomatic relations.
• Fed rate: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a more than 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of the year.
• US jobless claims: Investors will look to the latest US Initial Jobless Claims data for a fresh catalyst during the early North American session.

Closing statement: Gold remains supported above $4,100 but is consolidating after its recent rally. Strong expectations for a Fed rate hike could limit further gains, while geopolitical tensions and incoming US labour-market data remain key drivers of near-term price action.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $88.50 per barrel during the early European session.
• Houthi attacks: Iran-backed Houthi militants reportedly launched missile and drone attacks against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
• Kenyan refinery: Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, reportedly plans to build a 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery on Kenya's Lamu Island at an estimated cost of $17 billion. The project aims to reduce East Africa's dependence on imported refined fuels and could significantly alter regional energy infrastructure over the longer term.
• Saudi crude: The renewed Houthi blockade of Saudi Red Sea ports threatens up to 4 million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports that have been redirected through the region. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively disrupted, the additional threat to Red Sea shipments increases the risk of a broader supply shock.
• Venezuelan crude: Major refiners, including Phillips 66, Reliance, Chevron, Repsol, and Eni, are reportedly entering direct crude supply agreements with PDVSA to purchase Venezuelan oil. The trend reduces the role of major trading houses and reflects refiners' efforts to secure supplies more directly amid growing disruption in global oil markets.

Closing statement: WTI remains firmly supported near $88.50 as attacks on Saudi shipping and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify supply concerns. With multiple key export routes under pressure, crude oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile and sensitive to further geopolitical developments.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading around the 25,075-point mark on Wednesday morning.
• Commerzbank takeover: Italy's UniCredit is reportedly preparing for a potentially swift move to take control of Frankfurt-based Commerzbank. The bank expects regulatory approvals for its takeover bid could arrive as early as the fourth quarter, increasing the likelihood of further developments in the German banking sector.
• Daimler rating: Daimler Truck increased its profit and revenue forecasts for the current year, supported by strong demand in North America and the impact of new US tariff rules.
• BMW recalls: BMW is recalling approximately 318,495 vehicles in the United States after a potential engine starter defect was identified that could cause overheating and fire.
• Airbus price: RBC Capital Markets raised its price target for Airbus to €225 from €215 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains supported by positive corporate developments, particularly Daimler Truck's improved outlook and continued strength at Airbus. However, the potential UniCredit takeover of Commerzbank and company-specific risks at BMW remain important developments for investors to monitor.