Daily Analysis 24/07/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is defending its recent recovery and remains above the 1.3300 level during Friday's European session.
• Retail sales: UK retail sales increased by 1.0% month-on-month in June, following a 1.2% rise in May, according to the Office for National Statistics.
• Fiscal concerns: Despite the stronger retail sales figures, investors remain increasingly concerned that Prime Minister Andrew Burnham's spending plans could put pressure on the UK's fiscal stability.
• US-Iran: President Donald Trump said that the US would hold Iran responsible for the actions of the Houthis and warned that Iran and its Houthi allies could face a “major military punishment.”
• US tariffs: The Trump administration announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12% on 60 trading partners as temporary global tariffs expire.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported above 1.3300 following stronger UK retail sales data, but fiscal uncertainty surrounding the government's spending plans continues to limit the Pound's upside. Geopolitical tensions and the latest US tariff measures add further risks to the broader market outlook.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold remains under selling pressure for a second consecutive trading session, falling further below the $4,050 level during the European session.
• Labour market: US Jobless Claims fell to their lowest level since September 1969, pointing to continued strength in the labour market.
• US tariffs: President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 major trading partners, covering approximately 99.4% of US imports.
• Technology selloff: SpaceX postponed another attempt to launch its Starship rocket until July 24 due to adverse weather conditions. Meanwhile, Tesla and Google suffered sharp declines amid investor concerns that rising capital expenditure may not generate sufficient returns in the short to medium term.
• US Treasury: The US Treasury's latest FX Policy Report did not label China a currency manipulator, but highlighted a lack of transparency regarding its exchange-rate policies. Several countries, including Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland, remain on the currency monitoring list, adding another layer of uncertainty to the global currency landscape.

Closing statement: Gold remains under pressure below $4,050 as strong US labour-market data supports the Dollar and reduces expectations for near-term policy easing. However, elevated trade tensions and broader financial-market uncertainty could provide renewed support for the precious metal if risk aversion intensifies.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $89.40 per barrel during Friday's early European session.
• Houthi attacks: Iran-aligned Houthi forces reportedly attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, describing the action as part of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.
• Strait of Hormuz: According to Flexport, the Strait of Hormuz has returned to full war conditions, with vessel traffic falling to approximately 13 ships per day.
• OPEC+ output: OPEC+ is reportedly likely to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for September at its August meeting.
• India exports: India is on track to export its highest volume of refined petroleum products in several months as refining margins improve amid renewed Middle East tensions. The country could export as much as 1.55 million barrels per day of light and middle distillates in July, helping to increase the availability of refined products in global markets.

Closing statement: WTI remains firmly supported near $89.40 as attacks on Saudi tankers and the collapse in Strait of Hormuz traffic intensify supply concerns. Although a potential OPEC+ production increase and rising Indian refined-product exports may provide some relief, crude oil prices remain highly sensitive to any further escalation in the Middle East.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading lower around the 24,900-point mark on Wednesday.
• Business activity: Germany's flash HCOB Composite PMI returned to expansion territory in July, with the preliminary reading rising to 51.2, compared with 49.5 in June.
• US tariffs: EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Chief Kaja Kallas criticized the latest US tariffs, saying they were “not really grounded” and expressing surprise that the European Union was included in the new measures.
• ECB's Kocher: ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said he sees no hard evidence of second-round inflation effects but emphasized that the central bank is prepared to act if the inflation outlook deteriorates.
• Consumer confidence: The Eurozone's preliminary July Consumer Confidence indicator improved to -15.9, beating expectations of -17.0.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains under pressure near 24,900 despite a return to expansion in German business activity and improving Eurozone consumer confidence. Trade tensions with the US and continued uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook remain key risks for the index.