Daily Analysis 28/08/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is stabilizing around 1.3590 during the early European session on Friday after recent volatility.
• Labor market: US initial jobless claims came in at 203K, below expectations of 208K, while continuing claims fell to 1.778M versus 1.79M expected.
• BoE rate: Markets have significantly reduced expectations for further BoE tightening, with LSEG data now implying around 24.7 basis points of hikes by December. This effectively means investors no longer fully price a 25-basis-point rate increase by the end of the year, weighing on the Pound.
• Fed's Hammack: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated that it is “time to act” on interest rates, reinforcing the more hawkish side of the Federal Reserve.
• Upcoming news: With BoE hike expectations fading, traders have shifted their attention to the Jackson Hole monetary-policy symposium later on Friday.

Closing statement: GBP/USD has a cautious near-term bias, with weaker BoE rate expectations limiting Sterling's upside while resilient US labor data and hawkish Fed rhetoric support the Dollar. Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is likely to be the key catalyst for the pair today.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) attracts sellers below the $4,600 level during the early European session on Friday, giving back some of its recent gains.
• China PMI: Markets will look ahead to China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI due overnight on Monday.
• China's industry: China's NDRC emphasized that the development of robotics should be adapted to local conditions and pursued in an orderly manner.
• Fed's Schmid: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said inflation remains “sticky” and stressed the need to continue working toward bringing price pressures under control.
• Climate risks: The intensification of a potentially powerful Super El Niño event is adding another layer of uncertainty to global economic and commodity markets. While its direct impact on gold is difficult to quantify, major climate disruptions can influence inflation, growth expectations and overall market risk sentiment.

Closing statement: Gold faces moderate downside pressure below $4,600, with sticky US inflation and potentially restrictive Fed policy weighing on the metal. China's PMI data and developments in US monetary policy remain the key factors to watch for the next directional move.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $83.30 during European hours on Friday, pulling back after two consecutive sessions of gains.
• Strait of Hormuz: The US CENTCOM confirmed the successful clearing of sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, providing some optimism regarding the safety of the key shipping route.
• Biofuel policy: The Trump administration is reportedly considering adding around 500 million gallons to the 2027 biofuel blending quotas to offset exemptions expected for small refineries.
• Russia-Ukraine: Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine appear to have stalled, with recent comments from President Vladimir Putin suggesting that hostilities could escalate further.
• Hormuz traffic: Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, with only seven commodity vessels crossing on Thursday, below the ten-day average, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Closing statement: WTI is showing a mixed near-term outlook, with the pullback reflecting some easing of immediate supply concerns, while weak Hormuz traffic and geopolitical tensions continue to support prices. Developments around the Strait and Russia-Ukraine negotiations remain the key catalysts for the next move.

• DAX 40 Price: Germany's benchmark DAX 40 is trading higher around 26,490 points, putting the index just below the 26,500 technical hurdle. A sustained break above this level could open the way toward the recent all-time high, around 70 points higher.
• Unemployment numbers: Germany's unemployment rate held at 6.4% in August, while the number of unemployed increased by only 4,000, better than the 5,000 rise expected. The data points to continued resilience in the German labor market despite broader economic challenges.
• Consumer confidence: September GfK consumer confidence improved to -26.6, significantly better than the expected -29.5. The stronger reading suggests that household sentiment is gradually recovering and could provide some support to domestic consumption.
• Chemical sector: Germany's chemical industry recorded a notable improvement in business sentiment in August, with companies becoming positive about current conditions for the first time in four years.
• BMW news: Citigroup placed BMW on its Positive Catalyst Watch for the next 90 days, identifying potential positive share-price catalysts while maintaining a Neutral rating.

Closing statement: The DAX maintains a bullish near-term bias, with the index testing the important 26,500 resistance level. Stronger consumer sentiment and improving industrial confidence support the outlook, while the key question is whether buyers have enough momentum to challenge the record high before the weekend.